Logistic Equation and Chaos [30 points] : (Problem 68 in
Section 8.1 of
Thomas/Finney)
Use any computer algebra system or Excel or any programming languages
to do this problem. Please submit the printouts of the plots along with a
brief description of what the result means.
The population of certain species of bees are described by the
logistic equation
where
Xn is the population of the bees after n seasons and r is a
parameter which describes the effective growth rate of the population
(i.e. the difference between birth rate and the death rate). In the
above equation the population Xn is assumed to be given in millions;
so Xn=0.3 denotes a population of 0.3 million. The maximum population
that the environment can support is 1 million, so 0<Xn<1.
The aim of the project is to understand the long-term behavior of the
population of the bees, for different values of the parameter
r. We would find that if the effective growth rate r is small then
the bee population eventually dies out and if r is large, then the
long term behavior of the bee population becomes
chaotic.
Throughout this exercise choose the initial population X0 such that
0<X0<1, say X0=0.3.
- (a)
- Choose r=3/4. Calculate and plot the population for the first
hundred seasons. Does the population appear to converge? What do you
guess is the limit of the population sequence? Does this final limit
seem to depend on your choice of X0?
- (b)
- Choose several values of r in the interval 1<r<3 and repeat
the procedures given in the previous part. Describe the behavior of
the sequences you observe in your plots.
- (c)
- Now examine the values of r near the endpoints of the interval
3<r<3.45. The transition value r=3 is called a bifurcation
value and the new behavior of the sequence in the interval is
called an attracting 2-cycle.
- (d)
- Next explore the behavior for r values near the endpoints of
each of the intervals
3.45<r<3.54 and
3.54<r< 3.55. Plot the
first 200 terms of the sequences. Describe in your own words the
behavior observed in your plots for each interval. Among how many
values does the sequence appear to oscillate for each interval? The
values r=3.45 and r=3.54 are also called bifurcation points
since the behavior of the sequence changes as r crosses over
those values.
- (e)
- The situation gets even more interesting for
3.55<r<3.57. As
r varies between this range we get more complicated attracting
cycles. Choose r=3.5695 and plot 300 points. Describe the behavior.
- (f)
- Let us see what happens when r>3.57. Choose r=3.65 and
calculate and plot the first 300 terms of the sequence. Observe how
the population wanders around in an unpredictable, chaotic
fashion. You cannot guess the value of Xn+1 from the value of
Xn.
- (g)
- For r=3.65 choose two starting values of X0 that are close
together, say, X0=0.3 and X0=0.301. Calculate and plot the
first 300 values of the sequences determined by each starting
value. Compare the behavior observed in your plots (It is best to
plot them in the same graph). How far out do you go before the
corresponding terms of your two sequences appear to depart from each
other? Repeat the exploration for r=3.75. Notice how different the
plots look depending on your choice of initial population X0. This
sensitive dependence to initial condition is one of the most
important characteristics of chaotic behavior.